18 апреля 2016г.
The article covers [deals with] the problem of research estimate of social economic regions’ development and criterion’s determination of estimation functioning of regional economics.
Key words: index of social economic development, criterion of social economic efficiency, quality of population life, level of population life.
According subjective and objective reasons the regions of Russia are nonuniform (heterogeneous) [1],[2],[7]. As a consequence of multifocal uptake of regions’ development are: price dispirited, deceleration of economic growth of different level regions, further differentiation process of territory according the level of economic development and so on. Sometimes the multifocal uptake of regions intake extreme forms – regional particularism, isolationism, disintegration of Russian economic space. These facts are talked about inefficient readiness of corresponding conceptual foundations and methodological basis of regional development corresponding to forming bases of social oriented market economics to modern Russian. Multifocal uptake of evolutional dynamics of Russian regions makes (builds) не радужные prospects of their development for many years forward, that’s why it is actual to research an impact of multifocal uptake economic space upon social economic development. The main problem is identification of optimal set macroeconomic index which are characterized economic situation of region and its weighting factor.
Applied nature majority of this problem research creates preconditions for predominance of normative approach to estimation of social economic region’s condition. According these facts scientific validity of level’s dependence and quality of population life from external economic links apply to number of extremely important, but little-investigated problem of regional economics.
The scientific researches show that active foreign economic activity has positive influence on the rate of growth of economics in Russian region and lifetime, as one of the most important category of social sphere.
The problem of interconnection lifetime and GDP (gross domestic product) is well-known and explored enough, as
opposed to problem of influence of foreign economic activity on social economic region’s position.
American researchers J. Kurzman, F. Gordon found out the population lifetime’s rate of growth in advanced nation for the first 80 years of XX century, J. Grason jr., K. O’Dell researched dynamics GDP for the same period [4] [5]. M. Baskin, during investigation above mentioned proceedings, found out close relationship between lifetime and growth of GDP [2]. S.V. Tsimbalenko, A.P. Yanukyan, during investigation of dependences between GDP and expected lifetime since birth in region of South federal okrug (SFO), found out correlation dependence between these index (r=0,672) [6].
D.E. Davidyanc offered to use criteria of social economic effectiveness (SEE) for appraisal of social economic situation in regions, which is calculated as product expected lifetime (ELT) and gross domestic product (GDP) in region (SEE= GDP* ELT) [3].
In general in Russian regions correlation dependence between GDP and expected lifetime has no distinct trace. The diagram of correlation dependence between GDP and expected lifetime in regions of Russia you can see lower.
On the axis oy you see value of GDP of Russian regions, and
on
the axis ox – the expected lifetime in regions.
Correlation coefficient is so low because Russian regions are differentiated by value of GDP index and differentiation of regions according lifetime is restricted with natural limits. Though, as we can see GDP influences on lifetime.
On the basis of interrelation the most important macroeconomic index (GDP and ELT) we suggest to reveal the most meaningful characteristics for region estimation, by means of correlation analysis of criterion
social economic efficiency with analyzable macroeconomic index. The most meaningful index have correlation coefficient about 1.
To define the most meaningful macroeconomic index which are characterized social economic situation in region, we suggest to calculate meaning of index of social economic development of region with formula:
Where M – value of analyzable macroeconomic index in assessed region; Mmax - peak value macroeconomic index among regions of Russia; n – number macroeconomic index in model; + or – depends on symbol of correlation coefficient between pending macroeconomic index and GDP * ELT of region; r - linear correlation coefficient between product GDP * ELT and analyzed macroeconomic index.
Values of expected index are situated in interval (-1;1), the nearer value of index to 1, the better social economic situation in region. Weighting coefficient of macroeconomic index are different in space (in different regions) and time (it depends on observable period).
Supposed index social economic development of region has no great notional capacity, it serves for comparison social economic situation of Russian regions. In case low value (as compared with other regions) of current index, we can make its factor analysis (the nearer to 1 every summand, the more this category is investigated) and this fact can help to define its weaknesses in region’s economics with purpose
to eliminate
and optimize social
economic sphere of region. The indices of social economic development of some regions in SFO are in List 1.
List 1
Social economic development indices of some regions in the South of Russia for 2014
|
Region
|
The value of social economic development indices
|
|
Krasnodar region
|
0, 613
|
|
Stavropol region
|
0, 490
|
|
Astrakhan oblast
|
0,584
|
|
Volgograd oblast
|
0,489
|
|
Rostov oblast
|
0, 541
|
Inherently our model of social economic estimation of region the criterion
of social economic efficiency (GDP * ELT) is laid. Our calculations are shown that dynamic GDP and regions turnovers of foreign trade have closed correlation (r=0,968). The diagram of correlation dependence are here.
Endwise oy are criterion’ values of social economic efficiency and endwise ox are regions turnovers of foreign trade in Russia.
Foreign trade promotes the economical growth and makes promises for growth of level and life qualities. In modern market relations the circuit of foreign trade is not only an indicator of development’s trade-economical regions between countries, but it is also the most important characteristics of development of industrial sphere in country (or region).
As a result of our research we may conclude that globalization and integration of economics prove in growth turnovers of foreign trade and have great impact on social economic situation in regions.
List of references
1.
Akinin P.V., Ryazancev S.V. «Economic of Stavropol region», «Stavropolskaya book liberary» 2007 – 480p
2.
Baskin M. Equalization of life-span // Вопросы статистики – 1995 № 7 p 67-80
3.
Davidyanc D.E. «Efficiency of functioning of economy» – Stavropol: Caucasian edge, 2001. 132p.
4.
Grason J., O’Dell K. Moscow. «American management on the threshold of 21 age» Moscow. Экономика 1991 – 364p.
5.
Kurzman, F. Gordon «And death will vanish» Moscow. Мир 1987 – 223p.
6.
Tsimbalenko S.V., Yanukyan A.P., «Life level characteristics Stavropol region population» 22th may 2009 – 184p
7.
http://gks.ru – Official sait of GosKomStat RF.
