06 января 2016г.
Аннотация.
Данная статья посвящена текущим проблемам банковской системы Российской Федерации. C течением истории Российский Центральный Банк выстраивал сильную структуру, которая может пройти даже через самые трудные времена для национальной экономики. Однако вопрос в том, действительно ли она настолько сильна, какой кажется. Многие эксперты занимаются вопросами разработки стратегий, которые позволят пройти сквозь кризис, охвативший Россию в 2014 году, с наименьшими потерями. Разработка подобных стратегий может помочь стране, но нам необходима та самая, что снимет оковы экономической отсталости.
Ключевые слова: банковская система, ключевая ставка, экономический кризис, экономическая политика, санкции
THE CURRENT SITUATION WITHIN THE RUSSIAN BANKING SYSTEM
1Borkova Elena, 2Iakobidze Ekaterina
1Candidate of Science, associate professor of St. Petersburg State University of Economics St. Petersburg, Russia
2Student the St. Petersburg State University of Economics, St. Petersburg, Russia
Abstract.
This article is referred to the current problems of the banking system of the Russian Federation. Thought the history Russian Central Bank has been building a strong structure that can get through the most difficult times for national economy. However the question is if the structure is truly as strong as it may seem. Many experts are developing strategies of going through the crisis which embraced Russia in 2014 with minimal losses. Developing such strategies can help Russia but we need the one that will remove the fetters of economic backwardness.
Keywords: banking system, key rate, economic crisis, economic policy, sanctions.
As you know Russia is developing in very new conditions right now. So how would economic sanctions and changed prices on oil influence Russian economy? How much damage would large and medium business get? Would we be able to get any credits from banks whatsoever?
Actually, the bank crisis in Russia inexplicably occurs approximately once in 5 years. This time the situation is much more difficult than the last crisis which occurred in 2009.
More and more often we can hear something about a catastrophic depreciation of the ruble, about the next revokes of license from the Central bank of Russian Federation, about depreciation of oil, about the increase in Russian capital outflow and other unfavorable things for Russian economy. It‘s obvious that all of the above either way influence our banking system and ultimately us – the clients of Russian banks.
The situation around the Russian ruble seems interesting to most the Russian citizens. The whole disaster began from the autumn 2014 when low prices on oil were added to the sanctions, Ukrainian conflict and screwed up relationships with most of the financially wealthy countries. The boiling point was reached on the 16th of December, when the Central bank decided to largely increase key rate up to 17%. Such sharp increases haven‘t occurred since 1998. This decision was essential because the ruble situation was completely going out of control but from the very beginning the effect was reverse – the sharp increase caused incredible panic not only on the currency market but also among citizens, bulk currency buying took place, the situation with the ruble got much worse, exchange rate has fallen approximately by 15% against dollar and euro. The side effect of increase of key rate is high rate on loans which banks raise after the Central bank. Having high rate on loans causes difficulties in getting credits. As a result a huge amount of companies stops planning development or even reduces production on account of investment insufficiency and citizens begin to buy less, having a bad influence on consuming sector.
The current level of rates is at its maximum over the last one and a half years. According to the last forecasts of international rating agency Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (S&P) in 2014 Russian banking system was the most vulnerable among the largest developing markets like Chinese, Indian, Brazilian, Mexican, South African and Turkish. According to agencies calculations almost 70% of banks have a negative forecast, facing a number of problems among which are Western sanctions, decrease in economic growth and policy of the largest Central banks of withdrawing liquidity. [1]
In 2014 there was a tendency of growth of overdue debts because of the difficult economic situation. It is expected that because of the high interest rates and of the restricted requirements to borrowers the credit growth will minimize in recent years. In 2013 it has increased by 28% however in 2014 just only by 8%. [2] Some experts claim that it won‘t lead to the crisis however the banking sector will drop in profitability. Average maximum interest rates on ruble deposits of ten credit institutions in Russian Federation that attracted the largest amount of deposits of individuals reached in the first decade of November 9,9% per annum. This indicator increased in 10 days by 0,18%. The current level of rates is at its maximum over the last one and a half years. The current lending in rubles is 36.7 trillion rubles; overdue loans are 1.66 trillion rubles (+360 billion per year). That is 4,5% of all the ruble credits.
The inflation process undoubtedly influences Russian banking system. The financial system gradually adjusts to inflation targeting and floating exchange rate. Time lag of the reaction of the banking sector to the change of the key rate remains large though, according to estimates, gradually shrinking. This refers to deposit rates as well. As lags shrink, the effectiveness of the interest rate channel of the Bank of Russia monetary transmission mechanism will improve. [3]
As for the foreign exchange transmission channel, its impact is complicated because of the high volatility in the foreign exchange market. In order to make the situation with foreign exchange liquidity beneficial or at least normal, the Bank of the Russian Federation has introduced different transactions to provide it. The volume of foreign exchange liquidity provision is determined by the demand estimates based on the balance of payments forecast [3].
So what may happen to Russian banking structure in 2015? The opinions of researchers have been divided. Some of them claim that 2015 will bear the burden of the peak of the crisis, others are sure that Russian banks won‘t face the crisis but undoubtedly the situation will continue to be hard.
Accept the government support other factors can be identified in favor of Russian banking system being able to cope with 2015. These are improvement in the trade balance because of the weakening of the ruble, decline in unemployment that will stimulate consumers demand, expected more stable behavior of the ruble which will cause the inflow of deposits. The government decided to increase capitalizing the banking sector through federal loan bonds for 1 trillion rubles that will positively affect banks. In the long term, the ruble devaluation may have a beneficial effect on export industries, but this development is likely to happen beyond the scope of the Bank of Russia‘s 3-year forecast. Such kinds of positive effects can easily be even more damaged by the current sanctions on several Russian sectors imposed by the European Union and the United States and the possibility that these sanctions may remain in place for a while. [4]
According to the estimates of the Central Bank, in the current conditions economic growth rates will remain close to zero in 2015-2016, however in 2017, when import substitution and increase in non-commodity exports become more apparent, Russian banking system expects GDP to grow up to 1-1.2%. Higher growth rates in the next three years require structural reforms, primarily measures aimed at real improvement of business climate and higher labour productivity. [3]
With the Russian economy forecast to contract by around 3.5% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as the impact of the collapse in crude oil prices and international sanctions against the country over its role in the ongoing Ukraine crisis bite, businesses face a steep challenge to stay afloat. [5]
So, as a conclusion it is crucial to notice that it‘s obvious that saving activity of the population is decreasing; Russian people have almost lost their interest on bank deposits. This will undoubtedly influence Russian economy and business. Despite all the different scientific opinions and forecasts I can claim that the future is still unbelievably unpredictable and who on Earth could tell us what might happen if we‘re unable to do that ourselves?
List of references
1. International rating agency Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (S&P). http://www.standardandpoors.com
2. Joana Taborda (March 3, 2015) Russia Cuts Key Rate to 14%. Trading Economics. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/interest-rate
3. Elvira Nabiullina (December 11, 2014) The Russian economic situation and Bank of Russia's forecast. Bank for international settlements. http://www.bis.org/review/r150205d.htm
4. Simeon Djankov (March 19, 2015) The incredibly Rosy Forecast of Russia‘s Central Bank. Peterson Institute for International Economics. http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=4894
5. Tomas Hirst (January 27, 2015) One-fifth of Russian banks could collapse in 2015. Business insider. http://www.businessinsider.com/over-20-percent-of-russian-banks-at-risk-of-collapse-this-year-2015-1
