APPLICATION OF SYSTEM ANALYSIS FOR GASOLINE BLENDING BENEFITS ESTIMATION

Abstract

A new methodology for benefit analysis of gasoline blending system information technologies is represented. System analysis methods, mathematical modeling and  Applied Information Economics are applied. Estimations  of information system efficiency at refinery are investigated at three levels: the system, subsystem and supersystem.

Keywords: refinery, gasoline blending, mathematical modeling, scheduling, IT, economical efficiency.

Information systems implementation depends on an understanding of the economic effects. Inconclusive understanding of economic benefits does not allow their successful application in industry. Several practical examples are given in the reference article [7].

Contrary to popular belief, the value of information can be calculated as a dollar value. A powerful method for quantifying its value is Applied Information Economics [2].

The present article is intended to complement the methodology of efficiency estimation by:

- comprehensive approach and 3-level analysis: the system, subsystem and supersystem;

-   use of mathematical model for economic benefits estimation;

-   production analysis overtime in view of constantly changing conditions.

We consider gasoline blending process monitoring software as an example of practical importance. Gasoline, distillate fuel and fuel oil blending are of pertinent importance in refinery operations owing to the fact that gasoline give s considerable contribution to the refinery profit. Optimized blending may save and exceed profit in $15-20 million per year [1]. In this scenario, small reductions in giveaway yield huge results.

The second point of current concern is environmentally safe gasolines as it is overwhelmingly important for environmental protection.

Profit-making refineries all over the world use applications facilitating advanced planning and scheduling, advanced process control and real-time performance monitoring. Tools and technologies similar to these provide greater control, improved execution, safe and reliable production. It is important to unite all these systems in common information area [4, 6].

The blending components have different prices and properties, while the marketable gasolines (blending components) must meet strict quality standards. The key functionality of the blending control and optimization is to calculate and automatically apply an optimal blending recipe according to the criteria selected.

The refinery uses Profit Blend Optimizer software by Honeywell for on-line blend reformulation and optimization. Profit Blend Optimizer, known as OpenBPC, has a significant impact on quality control.

LUKOIL-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery obtained the system for real-time blending recipe optimization, which automatically controls the process using a flow analyzer (IR spectrometer by Bruker) measuring the component and blend properties and laboratory data enabling production of gasoline of a preset quality.

However at many refineries, product giveaway, re-blending and product downgrading continue to add significant costs. This situation shall be changed for the better.

As the difference in gasoline prices depends on octane numbers, usually octane number giveaway is used. This methodology allows finding additional efficiency stock.

Gasoline blending control system at our refinery includes in addition to OpenBPC, the products of Honeywell Company. The first one is RPMS, a program for production planning using linear programming, and the second one - Production Balance, a program for material balance and data consolidation (Figure).

Consequently, we use a computer program for information analysis and data comparison of various program products. As opposed to well-known approach [1,3] this program additionally contains a balance module of qualitative and quantitative indices and data of volume planning program.

We shall presently consider the efficiency of the information received.

Although the term “information” is often used in an ambiguous manner, it can also be used as an unambiguous unit of measure with a well-defined value calculation. This mathematical algorithm can be described as follows [2, P. 99]:

1. Intangibles that appear to be completely intractable can be measured.

2. Information reduces uncertainty about decisions.

3. Better decisions result in more effective actions.

4. Effective actions improve profit.

System analysis and the hierarchy of goals are applies to develop the Applied Information Economics. A system is usually composed of self-contained but interrelated systems that are called subsystems. The system is included in supersystem. A blending system structure consists of the system itself, its subsystems (measuring instruments), supersystem (refinery units and storage tanks).

It is well-known that devices have random and systematic error. Quality & Quantity Blending Balance software helps to analyze the deviations of the measured and reconciled values. The program provides an opportunity to correct imbalance and decrease systemic giveaway.

Studying these optimal gasoline blending systems, it is important to consider supersystem and the hierarchy of goals. Global refinery goals are more important than local blending performance giveaway. Refinery loading becomes suboptimal if supremum additional restrictions of octane numbers are fixed. Calculation using LP model shows that lost profit opportunity will amount to $0.03/bbl. Thus, for the planning of gasoline blending plant LP refinery model should be used.

Global optimization allows increasing the margin profit even with constant range of motor gasoline products. Efficiency increases as a result of units loading changes and optimization of yields. Estimation of this decision efficiency showed $0.02/bbl margin.

The Quality & Quantity Blending Balance software allows controlling multi-period and scheduling planning. Significant effects have been received as a result of blending optimization during scheduled preventive repairs. And actually we can achieve immediate response to constantly changing market requirements.

As can be seen from the above the innovative software has improved efficiency of operational management decisions and optimal planning. A new concept for estimation of software products benefits has been proposed. The Applied Information Economics methodology has been complemented by system analysis and evaluation of tracking scheduling. The result of the system analysis showed that the end user can achieve over $0.12/bbl benefit without any equipment changes.

List of references

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